Iran.. Chute du régime ou recyclage politique ?

Rédaction: Ahmed Mourjani . Ph.D Analyste géopolitique

Amid the recent military escalation between Iran on one side and Israel and the United States on the other, a pressing question resurfaces: are we witnessing a moment that could lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime, or is the situation heading toward a “recycling” of the system through an internal transformation that alters its form without changing its core?

The strikes targeting senior military and security figures, along with sensitive facilities, have exposed an unprecedented level of fragility within the regime’s structure. Iran is not only facing external pressure; it is also experiencing internal strain due to economic sanctions, declining living standards, and growing social unrest led by a generation no longer connected to the founding narrative of 1979 or its ideological discourse.

At the same time, the American strategy does not necessarily appear to aim at a direct overthrow of the regime, given the strategic costs and regional risks such a move would entail. Instead, it may seek to push Tehran toward adjusting its regional and nuclear behavior through an internal reconfiguration of decision-making centers. However, this scenario clashes with the very nature of the system, built upon a tightly interwoven security-ideological structure that is difficult to reform without undermining its foundations.

Between the possibility of total collapse and that of controlled recycling, the equation remains open. A regime that has survived for decades through internal control mechanisms and the externalization of crises now faces an existential test: either reinvent itself under new conditions or confront a gradual erosion that could culminate in an internal implosion difficult to contain.